From past to future: simulating land use and land cover changes using CA-Markov and multi-temporal satellite data
Yazarlar (3)
S. Keleş
Çankiri Karatekin Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Çankiri Karatekin Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Prof. Dr. Fatih SİVRİKAYA Kastamonu Üniversitesi, Türkiye
A. Günlü Çankiri Karatekin Üniversitesi, Türkiye
| Makale Türü | Özgün Makale (SSCI, AHCI, SCI, SCI-Exp dergilerinde yayınlanan tam makale) | ||
| Dergi Adı | International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology (Q3) | ||
| Dergi ISSN | 1735-1472 Dergi Bilgileri (2025) | ||
| Makale Dili | İngilizce | Basım Tarihi | 01-2025 |
| Cilt / Sayı / Sayfa | 23 / 1 / 2– | DOI | 10.1007/s13762-025-06779-6 |
| Makale Linki | https://doi.org/10.1007/s13762-025-06779-6 | ||
| UAK Araştırma Alanları |
Ziraat, Orman ve Su Ürünleri
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| Özet |
| Understanding land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics is essential for sustainable environmental management and spatial planning. This study applied the Cellular Automata–Markov (CA–Markov) model integrated with multi-temporal Landsat imagery (TM, ETM + , and OLI) to analyze past changes and project future LULC transitions in the Çankırı Forest Enterprise region of Türkiye. The classified maps for 2000, 2010, and 2020 achieved high accuracy (overall accuracy up to 95.3%, Kappa = 0.92). The CA–Markov model, validated with a 91.5% similarity rate, effectively simulated spatial–temporal dynamics of agricultural expansion, urban growth, and forest alteration. Results reveal that agricultural land increased by 73.4% over two decades, mainly driven by demographic growth and economic incentives, while forest and water resources declined. Future projections for 2030 and 2040 indicate continued … |
| Anahtar Kelimeler |
| Agricultural expansion | CA–Markov model | GIS | Kappa coefficient | Land use | Remote sensing |
| Atıf Sayıları | |
| Web of Science | 2 |
| Scopus | 1 |
| Google Scholar | 3 |