Possible Shift of Suitable Distribution Habitats of Laurus nobilis L. in Türkiye with the Effects of Global Climate Change
Yazarlar (8)
Uğur Cantürk
Düzce Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Düzce Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Doç. Dr. İsmail Koç Düzce Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Doç. Dr. Ramazan ERDEM Kastamonu Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Doç. Dr. Ayşe ÖZTÜRK PULATOĞLU Kastamonu Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Prof. Dr. Hakan ŞEVİK Kastamonu Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Prof. Dr. Halil Barış Özel Bartın Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Doç. Dr. Fatih Adıgüzel Bitlis Eren Üniversitesi, Türkiye
Doç. Dr. Nuri Kaan Özkazanç Bartın Üniversitesi, Türkiye
| Makale Türü |
Özgün Makale
(SSCI, AHCI, SCI, SCI-Exp dergilerinde yayınlanan tam makale)
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| Dergi Adı | Atmosphere (Q3) | ||
| Dergi ISSN | 2073-4433 Dergi Bilgileri (2026) | ||
| Dergi Tarandığı Indeksler | SCI-Expanded | ||
| Makale Dili | İngilizce | Basım Tarihi | 05-2026 |
| Cilt / Sayı / Sayfa | 17 / 5 / – | DOI | 10.3390/atmos17050516 |
| Makale Linki | https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17050516 | ||
| UAK Araştırma Alanları |
Toprak İlmi ve Ekoloji
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| Özet |
| Climate change poses significant threats to Mediterranean plant species, including Laurus nobilis L., an ecologically and economically important tree. This study evaluates potential shifts in its suitable distribution areas across Türkiye under future climate scenarios [Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2-4.5 (SSP2-4.5) and 5-8.5 (SSP5-8.5)] using an ensemble species distribution model incorporating ten algorithms. Key environmental drivers—elevation, annual mean temperature (Bio1), and evaporation including sublimation and transpiration (evspsbl)—were identified as critical factors influencing habitat suitability. Results indicate substantial spatial redistributions, with habitat losses projected in inland transition zones toward continental climates, particularly in parts of the Aegean and Black Sea regions. The current suitable distribution area across the country, approximately 18.48%, could rise to 18.55% by 2040 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and to 18.76% by 2060 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. However, without human intervention, the species’ establishment in these new suitable distribution areas is not considered possible. Moreover, it has been determined that the suitable distribution area of the species could decrease to 17.48% by 2060 under the SSP2-4.5 scenario and to 17.31% by 2080 under the SSP5-85 scenario. This result indicates that there could be a loss of more than 8% of the suitable distribution area between 2060 and 2080, according to the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Conversely, limited expansions may occur in specific areas, including the northern Aegean and the Hatay-Antep region. By 2100, despite periodic fluctuations, a net … |
| Anahtar Kelimeler |
| climate resilience | ensemble modeling | habitat suitability | Mediterranean flora | species distribution modeling |
BM Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
| Atıf Sayıları | |
| Web of Science | 1 |
| Google Scholar | 1 |