Structural divergence in Türkiye’s paper consumption: Category-specific evidence from an ARDL and ECM framework
Yazarlar (1)
Dr. Öğr. Üyesi Hakan AYDOĞAN Kastamonu Üniversitesi, Türkiye
| Makale Türü |
Özgün Makale
(Ulusal alan endekslerinde (TR Dizin, ULAKBİM) yayınlanan tam makale)
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| Dergi Adı | Anadolu Orman Araştırmaları Dergisi | ||
| Dergi ISSN | 1309-856X | ||
| Dergi Tarandığı Indeksler | TR DİZİN | ||
| Makale Dili | İngilizce | Basım Tarihi | 06-2026 |
| Kabul Tarihi | 10-06-2026 | Yayınlanma Tarihi | 23-06-2026 |
| Cilt / Sayı / Sayfa | – / 12 / 1–16 | DOI | 10.53516/ajfr.1938877 |
| Makale Linki | https://doi.org/10.53516/ajfr.1938877 | ||
| Kurumsal açık arşiv linki | https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ajfr/article/1938877 | ||
| UAK Araştırma Alanları |
Orman Endüstri Makineleri ve İşletmeciliği
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| Özet |
| Background and Aims This study examined the long-run evolution of paper consumption in Türkiye over 2000–2024 by distinguishing printing and writing papers from recovered paper. Methods Annual data from FAOSTAT, the World Bank, and UN Comtrade were used to construct category-specific apparent-consumption series, and descriptive analysis, ADF, KPSS, Zivot–Andrews tests, ARDL bounds testing, and ECM estimation were applied. Results Printing and writing paper consumption rose to about 1.25 million tonnes in the mid-2010s and then declined to about 0.87 million tonnes in 2024; over the same period, domestic production coverage fell from 0.53 to 0.29, while import dependence increased from 0.48 to 0.79. Recovered paper consumption increased from about 0.94 to 4.21 million tonnes, but its domestic production coverage weakened to 0.64 and import dependence rose to 0.37 by 2024. Cointegration was supported only for printing and writing papers; in the preferred model, the bounds F-statistic was 6.323 and the error-correction coefficient was -0.978 (p=0.001). Conclusion Paper consumption in Türkiye did not operate as a single integrated market; instead, it followed category-specific demand paths and supply structures. Strengthening domestic collection, sorting, and recycling capacity was concluded to be essential for a more resilient paper economy. |
| Anahtar Kelimeler |
| ARDL | ECM | ithalat bağımlılığı | kâğıt tüketimi | baskı ve yazı kâğıtları | geri kazanılmış kâğıt | Türkiye |
BM Sürdürülebilir Kalkınma Amaçları
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| Google Scholar | 1 |